I haven’t used this website for over five years, since getting a job within the gambling industry, but have been wanting to get back into writing up my weekly selections for a while and figured this was a great opportunity to do so.
Peterborough United to beat Crewe Alexandra – 23/20
Peterborough have been in imperious form this season, and it looks like this might finally be the one that sees them return to the Championship for the first time since 2013.
Crewe, on the other hand, have seen their form take a nosedive straight off a cliff. After a spell in which a victory at Doncaster was their fourth victory in six games, the Railwaymen have lost four on the spin against fellow League One sides.
A closer look at Crewe’s six wins in all competitions this term, including their unlikely victory at the Keepmoat Stadium, also reveals a lot. Two of them were against Bolton Wanderers, who have two wins in 15 games and find themselves 20th in League Two; another was against Wigan Athletic, who have bigger problems off the field and are rock bottom of the division; with another against MK Dons – the 23rd ranked away side in League Two. The other victory came in the EFL Trophy against Newcastle U21s, who are without a point at the bottom of their group.
In fact, the win over Doncaster came in a game in which they were outperformed. Rovers’ 1.9xG dwarfed the 0.8xG produced by the away side, with the home team taking 20 shots and 10 corners to Crewe’s 8 and 1 respectively.
1st League Two. 1st in the form table. 1st in my betslip. Peterborough should have the necessary firepower to get out of Cheshire with all three points on Saturday. Posh are unbeaten in their seven games (W6 D1) against the bottom ten, whilst Crewe have lost six of eight against sides above them in the league.
Cambridge United to beat Barrow AFC – 6/5
Another relatively generous price here, but in League Two this time. 2nd in the league Cambridge United welcome Barrow to the Abbey Stadium on Saturday afternoon, and will be looking to close the gap to Newport County atop the division
The U’s are unbeaten in their own backyard (W4 D2) and have some seriously impressive victories on their resume already. They’ve picked up 12 points from 12 available at home against sides in the top half of table, outscoring their opponents by 10 goals to three.
Barrow are a strange one this season. The Bluebirds are unbeaten at home this season, but only have eight points from their six games – so make of that what you will. Away from home, they’re a much more depressing story.
David Dunn’s side have lost four of their five away games, with their sole points and 80% of their goals coming in a 4-2 away victory at 10-man Mansfield. Eyebrows were raised when he was appointed, and I imagine there are still some questioning his credentials. In his 35 games as a full-time manager, Dunn has picked up five victories for a win percentage of just 14.29%. Not exactly inspiring.
I think by the time this game kicks off, Cambridge will be evens or below, so I’m happy to take the plus money on Mark Bonner’s side.
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